When it happens, we won't be able to say we were surprised. After all, we knew it would happen again. How? We don't know yet. Through tunnels? With gliders? With exploding buses? We also don't know where – Kedumim? Bat Hefer? Kfar Sava? And we don't know when, but October 7 will return.
What happened in Gaza will happen in Qalqilya or Jenin. The reasons are similar: oppression, humiliation and an absence of hope.
On this past October 7 the countdown began for the next October 7. On that October 7 we understood that the dialogue between us will be conducted only by force.
Our conclusion: more force. Their conclusion: more barbarism. The reaction to the next horror will resemble its predecessor: a claim of "incomprehensible cruelty," a call for revenge and a demand for a commission of inquiry. Again, thousands will die. Including children and women.
Go ahead, tell me where I'm mistaken.
We still haven't decided what to do with the territories and their inhabitants. Annexation? Expulsion? For 57 years we have demanded of the Palestinians that they wait quietly until we find the answer.
On October 7 we understood that a static situation is not proof of quiet, that suddenly the patience has expired. They realized that they would not get any answer from us even 100 years from now.
We had grown accustomed to ruling and we assumed they had become accustomed to being ruled.
We had fallen in love with the pose of a victim with an iron fist. Now neither the status nor the attribute applies. We are fighting for our identity, but we are refusing to accept that the Palestinians are fighting for their independence.
It is hard for us to accept that they too are "fighting for their home" and they too are "the few versus the many." We are forgetting that occupying powers always lose. It happened in Afghanistan; it happened in Vietnam. It will happen here too. Maybe Hamas will disappear, but the Palestinian people will not. It is convenient for us if all of them are Hamas, but 30,000 terrorists are not a people of 2.2 million.
What is the government proposing for the prevention of the next October 7? Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is suggesting air power. Opposition lawmaker and former defense minister Avigdor Lieberman: more tanks. That's what it looks like when politicians pretend that they are generals.
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has a more original idea: transfer (the elimination by starvation having been delayed for now). Wait a minute, did you say "transfer"? Sorry, sorry, but we don't talk like that here. It isn't nice. Why annoy people? From now on, call transfer "voluntary emigration." You could also try "relocation." Trust me, says Smotrich, no one will notice the difference.
Amos Oz once wrote: "Transfer is an impossible idea, because we won't let them. ... Even if we need to fragment the state and the army. Even if we need to lie down under the wheels of the trucks."
That was written 30 years ago. Israel has changed since then. Today, crowds will not lie down under the wheels of trucks. Then, they threw fascists out of the Knesset. Today, they are in the government.
The fascists in the government don't care that population transfer will lead to a boycott, ostracism and isolation. "A people that shall dwell alone," they will explain, citing with bitter arrogance the Book of Leviticus."
We can't go complaining to the settlers, they did make an effort: They uprooted, burned and looted. That did not bring about the "voluntary emigration," but thanks to them we have become a pariah. We have become a leper colony. The international airport in Lod looks like the airport in Pyongyang. Wait for restrictions on withdrawing foreign currency, because after all, someone has to pay for the wild abandon.
Israeli settlers fire at Palestinians (unseen) while an Israeli soldier (L) stands by during clashes in the town of Huwara in the occupied West Bank in October 2022.Credit: Oren Ziv / AFP
And whom will we allow to abandon us on the next October 7? Right! The same person who abandoned us last time. He is preparing us for a routine of governance under the auspices of war: Reservists will serve in the army for two months a year, and the evacuees will be returned to their bombarded homes and serve as scenery for normalcy. We're back to normal, he will say.
Until the election in October 2026, we will suffocate (united!) in his arms. He will see to maintaining the war on a low flame, and we will let 64 Knesset members drive us into the abyss because that is the law, and we don't understand that in order to defend democracy it is sometimes necessary to break it.
And the hostages? Oh yeah, the hostages... sorry! So it's like this: We are all set. On the anniversary we will talk on television about "the incomprehensible cruelty of Hamas" and on the radio we will broadcast sad songs.
The Education Ministry will prepare a nice computerized presentation and on Memorial Day the school kids will be asked to come in white shirts. In his speech, the prime minister will stress: "You have always been in my heart."